UPDATED

If gambling weren’t, well, gambling I’d be in Vegas every weekend. However, alas, it is. But perhaps the best wager one could make if Sin City bookies were taking bets is that the nation’s economy will be doing better one or two years from now.

Which makes Obama’s challenge Tuesday in Ft. Myers, Fla., an empty gesture. After telling the nation repeatedly that not everything in the boondoggle stimulus package will work exactly as we would like (and Joe Biden told Democrats that there’s a 30 percent chance they’ll get it wrong), the president said we can judge him by the results:

I expect to be judged by results, and that’s not, you know, I’m not going to make any excuses. If stuff hasn’t worked and people don’t feel like I’ve led the country in the right direction, then you’ll have a new president.

On “Hardball” Wednesday night, Chris Matthews could hardly contain his tingling leg while gushing all over Obama with former McCain adviser Mark McKinnon and Democratic strategist Karen Finney.

After reading Obama’s quote (and it’s awesome that Matthews read it with the “you know”), Matthews said he’s never seen a big politician play “big casino” like that. Paraphrasing Obama, Matthews said “if things don’t begin to turn around by next year, you’ll know it, and I’m a loser.”

McKinnon, who said he left McCain’s campaign because he didn’t want to be the “tip of the spear” attacking Obama (where’s his cajones?), told Matthews:

He put it all on red, and I think that was smart.

The three then proceeded to have a circle jerk of self gratifying observations about how cool the president has been and Obama being Fred Astaire.

Here’s the video, the section about which I’m talking is toward the end:

McKinnon said the president was smart to put it all on red because it showed he was taking responsibility.

With Obama sounding the alarm that “if we don’t do something big and fast” the world will come to an end over and over, it may seem bold to stake one’s political future on the success of the stimulus.

But putting it all on red is smart — it’s a sure bet.

The economy is bound to be growing once again by the time Obama runs again, and probably before the midterm elections next year.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, of the 12 recessions since the Great Depression, the longest two lasted a mere 16 months, from November 1973 to March 1975 and from July 1981 to November 1982.

Our two most recent were half as long, spanning eight-month periods from July 1990 to March 1991 and from March 2001 to November 2001. The average recession length since the Great Depression is just under 10 and a half months.

And the average length of a bear market on the stock exchange is 15 months.

There’s debate about how much the government’s role influences the economy, but whether the stimulus jump starts the economy or prolongs the slump won’t affect the president’s bet. History tells us the economy will be back before voters head to the polls.

Merrill Lynch announced the nation was in recession in January 2008 — and others place the beginning in December 2007. That would put the age of the current recession at 13 months. With the lag time in economics data, we may already be pulling out — or will likely do so soon.

That’s why whoever was elected last November would be almost assured to win re-election — the cyclical style of the economy practically guarantees an upswing during the 2012 election.

It’s also a reason, despite the conventional wisdom that the president was playing down expectations, for Obama to warn of catastrophe if the government doesn’t act (which has been vastly overstated). With the stimulus passed, his 2012 message is sealed: Thank God we acted when we did — now the economy is back.

But the truth is, the economy runs in cycles with and without government spending. The ingenuity and hard work of the American people keep this nation running.

And just like when you draw 11 playing Black Jack, on that you should always double down.

UPDATE

Signs of a turnaround?

Some good news came out today … showing the economy might, might, have rounded the corner.

• Retail sales are up 1 percent (after a previous 3 percent drop)
• Unemployment claims are also down (though not by very much)
• Foreclosure rates dropped 10 percent (though still 18 percent higher than last year)

The bet gets even safer.